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Previous Fracture and Subsequent Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis to Update Frax Publisher Pubmed



Kanis JA1, 2 ; Johansson H1, 3 ; Mccloskey EV2, 4 ; Liu E1 ; Akesson KE5, 6 ; Anderson FA7 ; Azagra R8, 9, 10 ; Bager CL11 ; Beaudart C12, 13 ; Bischoffferrari HA14, 15 ; Biver E16 ; Bruyere O12 ; Cauley JA17 ; Center JR18, 19, 20 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Kanis JA1, 2
  2. Johansson H1, 3
  3. Mccloskey EV2, 4
  4. Liu E1
  5. Akesson KE5, 6
  6. Anderson FA7
  7. Azagra R8, 9, 10
  8. Bager CL11
  9. Beaudart C12, 13
  10. Bischoffferrari HA14, 15
  11. Biver E16
  12. Bruyere O12
  13. Cauley JA17
  14. Center JR18, 19, 20
  15. Chapurlat R21
  16. Christiansen C11
  17. Cooper C22, 23, 24
  18. Crandall CJ25
  19. Cummings SR26
  20. Da Silva JAP27, 28
  21. Dawsonhughes B29
  22. Diezperez A30
  23. Dufour AB31, 32
  24. Eisman JA18, 19, 20
  25. Elders PJM33
  26. Ferrari S16
  27. Fujita Y34
  28. Fujiwara S35
  29. Gluer CC36
  30. Goldshtein I37, 38
  31. Goltzman D39
  32. Gudnason V40, 41
  33. Hall J42
  34. Hans D43
  35. Hoff M44, 45
  36. Hollick RJ46
  37. Huisman M47, 48
  38. Iki M49
  39. Ishshalom S50
  40. Jones G51
  41. Karlsson MK5, 6
  42. Khosla S52
  43. Kiel DP31, 32
  44. Koh WP53, 54
  45. Koromani F55, 56
  46. Kotowicz MA57, 58, 59
  47. Kroger H60, 61
  48. Kwok T62, 63
  49. Lamy O64, 65
  50. Langhammer A66
  51. Larijani B67
  52. Lippuner K68
  53. Mellstrom D69, 70
  54. Merlijn T71
  55. Nordstrom A72, 73, 74
  56. Nordstrom P75
  57. Oneill TW76, 77
  58. Obermayerpietsch B78, 79
  59. Ohlsson C80, 81
  60. Orwoll ES82
  61. Pasco JA57, 58, 59, 83
  62. Rivadeneira F55
  63. Schott AM84
  64. Shiroma EJ85
  65. Siggeirsdottir K40, 86
  66. Simonsick EM87
  67. Sornayrendu E88
  68. Sund R61
  69. Swart KMA33, 89
  70. Szulc P88
  71. Tamaki J90
  72. Torgerson DJ91
  73. Van Schoor NM47
  74. Van Staa TP92
  75. Vila J93
  76. Wareham NJ94
  77. Wright NC95
  78. Yoshimura N96
  79. Zillikens MC55
  80. Zwart M10, 97, 98, 99
  81. Vandenput L1, 80
  82. Harvey NC22, 23
  83. Lorentzon M1, 3
  84. Leslie WD100

Source: Osteoporosis International Published:2023


Abstract

Summary: A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX. Introduction: The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD). Methods: We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients. Results: A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72–2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69–2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63–2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62–2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination. Conclusion: A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies. © 2023, International Osteoporosis Foundation and Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation.
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