Effective Factors in the Survival Time of Covid-19 Patients in Three Epidemic Waves: A Prospective Cohort Study



Kargarianmarvasti S^{1, 2} ; Malihe Hasannezhad M³ ; Abolghasemi J⁴
Source: Iranian Journal of Epidemiology Published:2021

Abstract

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the effective factors in the survival/hazard time of Covid-19 patients in three waves of epidemic. Methods: All 880 Covid-19 patients were included in this prospective cohort study using the census method. Polymerase chain reaction was used to diagnose Covid-19. The survival status of these patients was followed up for 4 months. The analysis of this study was based on the time of infection in three epidemic waves in IRAN. To analyze the data, the Kaplan-Meier nonparametric approach and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used. Survival distributions were compared in three epidemic waves using the R software (version 3.6.2) (P<0.05). Results: We diagnosed 880 positive case of Covid-19 using PCR test on 2269 susspected people who had respiratory symptomps. At the end of 1-year follow-up, cumulative incidence (risk) of Covid-19 was estimated 7%. Effective factors in the survival time of patients with Covid-19 based on Cox multivariate regression model were: 1-Age 2-Intensity of infection (Hospitalization) 3-Heart disease 4-Epidemic Wave and 5-Transmission mode of the disease (P <0.05). The Kaplan-Meier approach and log rank test (Mantel-Cox) showed a significant difference in the survival rate in three epidemic waves (P = 0.018). Conclusion: Elderly patients, especially those with a history of heart disease, are at higher risk of death than other groups. In addition to regular screening, these patients will need active monitoring, especially at the time of hospitalization. © 2021 The Authors.