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Global Prevalence and Genotype Distribution of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in 2015: A Modelling Study Publisher Pubmed



Blach S1 ; Zeuzem S2 ; Manns M3 ; Altraif I4 ; Duberg AS5, 6 ; Muljono DH7, 8 ; Waked I9 ; Alavian SM10, 11 ; Lee MH12 ; Negro F13 ; Abaalkhail F14 ; Abdou A15 ; Abdulla M16 ; Abou Rached A17 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Blach S1
  2. Zeuzem S2
  3. Manns M3
  4. Altraif I4
  5. Duberg AS5, 6
  6. Muljono DH7, 8
  7. Waked I9
  8. Alavian SM10, 11
  9. Lee MH12
  10. Negro F13
  11. Abaalkhail F14
  12. Abdou A15
  13. Abdulla M16
  14. Abou Rached A17
  15. Aho I18
  16. Akarca U19
  17. Al Ghazzawi I20
  18. Al Kaabi S21
  19. Al Lawati F22
  20. Al Namaani K23
  21. Al Serkal Y24
  22. Albusafi SA25
  23. Aldabal L26
  24. Aleman S27, 28
  25. Alghamdi AS29
  26. Aljumah AA4
  27. Alromaihi HE30
  28. Andersson MI31
  29. Arendt V32, 33
  30. Arkkila P34
  31. Assiri AM35
  32. Baatarkhuu O36
  33. Bane A37
  34. Benari Z38
  35. Bergin C39, 40
  36. Bessone F41
  37. Bihl F42
  38. Bizri AR43
  39. Blachier M44
  40. Blasco AJ45
  41. Brandao Mello CE46
  42. Bruggmann P47
  43. Brunton CR48
  44. Calinas F49
  45. Chan HLY50
  46. Chaudhry A51
  47. Cheinquer H52
  48. Chen CJ53
  49. Chien RN54
  50. Choi MS55
  51. Christensen PB56
  52. Chuang WL57
  53. Chulanov V58
  54. Cisneros L59
  55. Clausen MR60
  56. Cramp ME61
  57. Craxi A62, 63
  58. Croes EA64
  59. Dalgard O65
  60. Daruich JR66, 67
  61. De Ledinghen V68, 69
  62. Dore GJ70
  63. Elsayed MH71
  64. Ergor G72
  65. Esmat G73
  66. Estes C1
  67. Falconer K74
  68. Farag E75
  69. Ferraz MLG76
  70. Ferreira PR77
  71. Flisiak R78
  72. Frankova S79
  73. Gamkrelidze I1
  74. Gane E80
  75. Garciasamaniego J81
  76. Khan AG82
  77. Gountas I1
  78. Goldis A83
  79. Gottfredsson M84
  80. Grebely J70
  81. Gschwantler M85
  82. Guimaraes Pessoa M86
  83. Gunter J1
  84. Hajarizadeh B70
  85. Hajelssedig O21
  86. Hamid S87
  87. Hamoudi W88
  88. Hatzakis A89, 90
  89. Himatt SM75
  90. Hofer H91
  91. Hrstic I92
  92. Hui YT93
  93. Hunyady B94, 95
  94. Idilman R96
  95. Jafri W87
  96. Jahis R97
  97. Janjua NZ98, 99
  98. Jarcuska P100
  99. Jeruma A101, 102
  100. Jonasson JG103, 104
  101. Kamel Y21, 105
  102. Kao JH106
  103. Kaymakoglu S107
  104. Kershenobich D108
  105. Khamis J16
  106. Kim YS109
  107. Kondili L110
  108. Koutoubi Z111
  109. Krajden M98, 112
  110. Krarup H113
  111. Lai MS114
  112. Laleman W115
  113. Lao WC116
  114. Lavanchy D117
  115. Lazaro P45
  116. Leleu H44
  117. Lesi O118
  118. Lesmana LA119, 120
  119. Li M121
  120. Liakina V122, 123
  121. Lim YS124
  122. Luksic B125
  123. Mahomed A126
  124. Maimets M127
  125. Makara M128
  126. Malu AO129
  127. Marinho RT130
  128. Marotta P131
  129. Mauss S132
  130. Memon MS133
  131. Mendes Correa MC134
  132. Mendezsanchez N135
  133. Merat S136
  134. Metwally AM137
  135. Mohamed R138
  136. Moreno C139
  137. Mourad FH140
  138. Mullhaupt B141
  139. Murphy K1
  140. Nde H1
  141. Njouom R142
  142. Nonkovic D143
  143. Norris S39, 40
  144. Obekpa S129, 144
  145. Oguche S145, 146
  146. Olafsson S147
  147. Oltman M148
  148. Omede O149
  149. Omuemu C150
  150. Oparesem O151
  151. Ovrehus ALH56
  152. Owusuofori S152
  153. Oyunsuren TS153
  154. Papatheodoridis G154
  155. Pasini K1
  156. Peltekian KM155
  157. Phillips RO151
  158. Pimenov N58
  159. Poustchi H136
  160. Prabdialsing N156, 157
  161. Qureshi H158
  162. Ramji A159
  163. Razavishearer D1
  164. Razavishearer K1
  165. Redae B160
  166. Reesink HW161
  167. Ridruejo E162
  168. Robbins S1
  169. Roberts LR163
  170. Roberts SK164
  171. Rosenberg WM165
  172. Roudotthoraval F166
  173. Ryder SD167
  174. Safadi R168
  175. Sagalova O169
  176. Salupere R127
  177. Sanai FM170, 171
  178. Sanchez Avila JF172
  179. Saraswat V173
  180. Sarmentocastro R174
  181. Sarrazin C175
  182. Schmelzer JD1
  183. Schreter I176
  184. Seguindevaux C177
  185. Shah SR178
  186. Sharara AI140
  187. Sharma M21
  188. Shevaldin A179, 180
  189. Shiha GE181
  190. Sievert W182
  191. Sonderup M183
  192. Souliotis K184
  193. Speiciene D122
  194. Sperl J79
  195. Starkel P185
  196. Stauber RE186
  197. Stedman C187
  198. Struck D188
  199. Su TH189
  200. Sypsa V89
  201. Tan SS190
  202. Tanaka J191
  203. Thompson AJ192
  204. Tolmane I193, 194
  205. Tomasiewicz K195
  206. Valantinas J122
  207. Van Damme P196
  208. Van Der Meer AJ197
  209. Van Thiel I198, 199
  210. Van Vlierberghe H196
  211. Vince A200
  212. Vogel W201
  213. Wedemeyer H3, 202
  214. Weis N203, 204
  215. Wong VWS205, 206
  216. Yaghi C207
  217. Yosry A73
  218. Yuen MF208
  219. Yunihastuti E209
  220. Yusuf A210
  221. Zuckerman E211
  222. Razavi H1

Source: The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology Published:2017


Abstract

Background The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
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