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Global Change in Hepatitis C Virus Prevalence and Cascade of Care Between 2015 and 2020: A Modelling Study Publisher Pubmed



Blach S1 ; Terrault NA2 ; Tacke F3 ; Gamkrelidze I1, 115 ; Craxi A4 ; Tanaka J5 ; Waked I6 ; Dore GJ8 ; Abbas Z9, 10 ; Abdallah AR7, 11 ; Abdulla M12, 13, 67 ; Aghemo A14, 15 ; Aho I16 ; Akarca US17 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Blach S1
  2. Terrault NA2
  3. Tacke F3
  4. Gamkrelidze I1, 115
  5. Craxi A4
  6. Tanaka J5
  7. Waked I6
  8. Dore GJ8
  9. Abbas Z9, 10
  10. Abdallah AR7, 11
  11. Abdulla M12, 13, 67
  12. Aghemo A14, 15
  13. Aho I16
  14. Akarca US17
  15. Alalwan AM19
  16. Blom MA20
  17. Albusafi SA21
  18. Aleman S22
  19. Alghamdi AS23
  20. Alhamoudi WK25
  21. Aljumah AA26
  22. Alnaamani K27
  23. Serkal YMA28
  24. Altraif IH19, 29
  25. Anand AC30, 31
  26. Anderson M32, 67
  27. Andersson MI33, 34
  28. Athanasakis K35
  29. Baatarkhuu O36, 37
  30. Bakieva SR38
  31. Benari Z40
  32. Bessone F41, 42
  33. Biondi MJ43
  34. Bizri ARN44
  35. Brandaomello CE45, 46
  36. Brigida K38
  37. Brown KA47
  38. Brown RS47, 48
  39. Bruggmann P49, 50, 51
  40. Brunetto MR52, 53
  41. Busschots D54, 55
  42. Buti M56, 57, 160, 181, 221
  43. Butsashvili M160, 181, 221
  44. Cabezas J58, 59
  45. Chae C60
  46. Ivanova VC61
  47. Chan HLY62, 63
  48. Cheinquer H66
  49. Cheng KJ67
  50. Cheon ME60
  51. Chien CH68, 69
  52. Chien RN69, 70
  53. Choudhuri G71, 72
  54. Christensen PB74
  55. Chuang WL75
  56. Chulanov V77, 78
  57. Cisneros LE79, 80, 81
  58. Coco B82, 152, 174
  59. Contreras FA83, 84
  60. Cornberg M85, 86, 272, 279
  61. Cramp ME87, 88
  62. Crespo J59, 89
  63. Cui F18, 90, 135, 166, 187
  64. Cunningham CW91
  65. Abou LD92, 93
  66. Dalgard O94, 95
  67. Dao DY96
  68. Ledinghen VD97
  69. Derbala MF99
  70. Deuba K100, 101
  71. Dhindsa K1
  72. Djauzi S102
  73. Drazilova S103
  74. Duberg AS104
  75. Elbadri M98, 250, 266
  76. Elsayed MH105
  77. Esmat G106
  78. Estes C1
  79. Ezzat S107
  80. Farkkil MA152
  81. Ferradini L108
  82. Ferraz MLG109
  83. Ferreira PRA110
  84. Kanizaj TF111
  85. Flisiak R112
  86. Frankova S113
  87. Fung J114
  88. Gamkrelidze A1, 115
  89. Gane EJ116, 118
  90. Garcia V119, 120, 121
  91. Garciasamaniego J122
  92. Gemilyan M123
  93. Genov J124
  94. Gheorghe LS125, 126
  95. Gholam PM127
  96. Gottfredsson M128, 132
  97. Gray RT8
  98. Grebely J8
  99. Gschwantler M133
  100. Hajarizadeh B8
  101. Hamid SS134
  102. Hamoudi W24, 136
  103. Hatzakis A139
  104. Hellard ME140
  105. Himatt S141
  106. Hofer H142
  107. Hrstic I143, 144, 145
  108. Hunyady B146, 147
  109. Husa P148, 149
  110. Husicselimovic A150
  111. Jafri WSM151
  112. Janicko M103
  113. Janjua NZ152
  114. Jarcuska P103
  115. Jaroszewicz J153
  116. Jerkeman A20, 154
  117. Jeruma A155, 156
  118. Jia J157
  119. Jonasson JG129, 132
  120. Kaita KDE160
  121. Kao JH161
  122. Kasymov OT163
  123. Kellyhanku A8, 164
  124. Khamis F12, 165
  125. Khamis J12, 165
  126. Khan AG166
  127. Khandu L167
  128. Khoudri I168
  129. Kielland KB169
  130. Kim DY170
  131. Kodjoh N171
  132. Kondili LA172
  133. Krajden M152, 173
  134. Krarup HB158, 159, 175
  135. Kristian P176, 177
  136. Kwon JA8
  137. Lagging M178, 179
  138. Laleman W180
  139. Lavanchy D182
  140. Lazaro P183
  141. Lazarus JV184
  142. Lee AU185, 186
  143. Lee MH185, 186
  144. Li MKK187
  145. Liakina V188, 189
  146. Lim YS190
  147. Love A130
  148. Luksic B191
  149. Machekera SM192, 193
  150. Malu AO194, 195
  151. Marinho RT196
  152. Maticic M197, 198
  153. Mekonnen HD199
  154. Mendescorrea MC200, 201
  155. Mendezsanchez N202
  156. Merat S203
  157. Meshesha BR204
  158. Midgard H205
  159. Mills M206
  160. Mohamed R207
  161. Mooneyhan E1
  162. Moreno C208, 209
  163. Muljono DH210, 211
  164. Mullhaupt B212
  165. Musabaev E38
  166. Muyldermans G213
  167. Nartey YA101
  168. Naveira MCM1
  169. Negro F214, 215
  170. Nersesov AV216
  171. Njouom R217
  172. Ntagirabiri R218, 219
  173. Nurmatov ZS220
  174. Obekpa SA221
  175. Oguche S222
  176. Olafsson S131
  177. Ong JP223
  178. Orrego M226
  179. Ovrehus AL73
  180. Pan CQ227
  181. Papatheodoridis GV138
  182. Peckradosavljevic M228, 229
  183. Pessoa MG230
  184. Phillips RO225
  185. Pimenov N76
  186. Plaseskakaranfilska D152, 231
  187. Prabdialsing NN232, 233
  188. Puri P234
  189. Rahman A235
  190. Ramji A174
  191. Razavishearer DM1
  192. Razavishearer K1
  193. Ridruejo E237
  194. Rioshincapi CY238
  195. Rizvi SMS236
  196. Robaeys GKMM239, 240
  197. Roberts LR241, 242, 243
  198. Roberts SK243
  199. Ryder SD244
  200. Sadirova S38
  201. Saeed U245, 246
  202. Safadi R247, 248
  203. Sagalova O249
  204. Said SS250, 251
  205. Salupere R252
  206. Sanai FM253
  207. Sanchezavila JF254
  208. Saraswat VA255, 256
  209. Sarrazin C257
  210. Sarybayeva G258
  211. Seguindevaux C259
  212. Sharara AI44
  213. Sheikh M235
  214. Shewaye AB260, 261
  215. Sievert W262, 263
  216. Simojoki K264
  217. Simonova MY265
  218. Sonderup MW266
  219. Spearman CW266
  220. Sperl J113
  221. Stauber RE267, 268
  222. Stedman CAM269
  223. Su TH162
  224. Suleiman A270
  225. Sypsa V137
  226. Antabak NT271
  227. Tergast TL85
  228. Thurairajah PH273
  229. Tolmane I274, 275
  230. Tomasiewicz K276
  231. Tsereteli M277
  232. Uzochukwu BSC39, 278
  233. Vijver DAMCVD279
  234. Santen DKV140, 280
  235. Vlierberghe HV281
  236. Welzen BV282
  237. Vanwolleghem T283, 284
  238. Villamil FG285, 286
  239. Vince A287
  240. Waheed Y288
  241. Weis N289, 290
  242. Wong VWS64, 65
  243. Yaghi CG291, 292
  244. Yesmembetov K293, 294
  245. Yosry A295
  246. Yuen MF296
  247. Yunihastuti E102
  248. Zeuzem S224
  249. Zuckerman E117
  250. Razavi HA1

Source: The Lancet Gastroenterology and Hepatology Published:2022


Abstract

Background: Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods: This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings: Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7–0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2–67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8–75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8–1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5–15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000–765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation: At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Funding: John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, ZeShan Foundation, and The Hepatitis Fund. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd
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