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Predicting the Environmental Suitability for Onchocerciasis in Africa As an Aid to Elimination Planning Publisher Pubmed



Cromwell EA1, 2 ; Osborne JCP1 ; Unnasch TR3 ; Basanez M4, 5 ; Gass KM6 ; Barbre KA6 ; Hill E1 ; Johnson KB1 ; Donkers KM1 ; Shirude S1 ; Schmidt CA1 ; Adekanmbi V7 ; Adetokunboh OO8, 9 ; Afarideh M10, 11 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Cromwell EA1, 2
  2. Osborne JCP1
  3. Unnasch TR3
  4. Basanez M4, 5
  5. Gass KM6
  6. Barbre KA6
  7. Hill E1
  8. Johnson KB1
  9. Donkers KM1
  10. Shirude S1
  11. Schmidt CA1
  12. Adekanmbi V7
  13. Adetokunboh OO8, 9
  14. Afarideh M10, 11
  15. Ahmadpour E12
  16. Beshir Ahmed M13, 14
  17. Yihunie Akalu T15
  18. Alaly Z16, 17
  19. Alanezi FM18
  20. Alanzi TM19
  21. Alipour V20, 21
  22. Andrei CL22
  23. Ansari F23, 24
  24. Ansha MG25
  25. Anvari D26, 27
  26. Yaw Appiah SC28, 29
  27. Arabloo J20
  28. Arnold BF30
  29. Ausloos M31, 32
  30. Ayanore MA33
  31. Amin Baig A34
  32. Banach M35, 36
  33. Barac A37, 38
  34. Barnighausen TW39, 40
  35. Bayati M41
  36. Bhattacharyya K42, 43
  37. Bhutta ZA44, 45
  38. Bibi S46
  39. Bijani A47
  40. Bohlouli S48
  41. Bohluli M49, 50
  42. Brady OJ51
  43. Bragazzi NL52
  44. Butt ZA53, 54
  45. Carvalho F55
  46. Chatterjee S56
  47. Chattu VK57
  48. Chattu SK58
  49. Cormier NM1
  50. Dahlawi SMA59
  51. Damiani G60, 61
  52. Daoud F1
  53. Darwesh AM62
  54. Daryani A63
  55. Deribe K64, 65
  56. Dharmaratne SD1, 2, 66
  57. Diaz D67, 68
  58. Do HT69
  59. El Sayed Zak M70
  60. El Tantawi M71
  61. Elemineh DA72
  62. Faraj A73
  63. Harandi MF74
  64. Fatahi Y75, 76
  65. Feigin VL1, 77, 78
  66. Fernandes E79
  67. Foigt NA80
  68. Foroutan M81
  69. Franklin RC82
  70. Mohialdeen Gubari MI83
  71. Guido D84
  72. Guo Y85, 86
  73. Hajmirzaian A87, 88
  74. Abdullah KH89
  75. Hamidi S90
  76. Herteliu C32, 91
  77. De Hidru HD92
  78. Higazi TB93
  79. Hossain N94
  80. Hosseinzadeh M95, 96
  81. Househ M97
  82. Ilesanmi OS98, 99
  83. Ilic MD100
  84. Ilic IM38
  85. Iqbal U101
  86. Naghibi Irvani SS102
  87. Jha RP103, 104
  88. Joukar F105, 106
  89. Jozwiak JJ107
  90. Kabir Z108
  91. Kalankesh LR109
  92. Kalhor R110, 111
  93. Matin BK112
  94. Karimi SE113
  95. Kasaeian A114, 115
  96. Kavetskyy T116, 117
  97. Kayode GA118, 119
  98. Karyani AK112
  99. Kelbore AG120
  100. Keramati M121
  101. Khalilov R122, 123
  102. Khan EA124
  103. Nuruzzaman Khan MN125, 126
  104. Khatab K127, 128
  105. Khater MM129
  106. Kianipour N130
  107. Kibret KT131
  108. Kim YJ132
  109. Kosen S133
  110. Krohn KJ1
  111. Kusuma D134, 135
  112. Vecchia CL136
  113. Lansingh Van C137, 138
  114. Lee PH139
  115. Legrand KE1
  116. Li S140
  117. Longbottom J141
  118. Abd El Razek HM142
  119. Abd El Razek MM143
  120. Maleki A144, 145
  121. Mamun AA146
  122. Manafi A147
  123. Manafi N148, 149
  124. Mansournia MA150
  125. Martinsmelo FR151
  126. Mazidi M152
  127. Mcalinden C153
  128. Meharie BG154
  129. Mendoza W155
  130. Mengesha EW156
  131. Mengistu DT157
  132. Mereta ST158
  133. Mestrovic T159, 160
  134. Miller TR161, 162
  135. Miri M163, 164
  136. Moghadaszadeh M165, 166
  137. Hafshejani AM167
  138. Mohammadpourhodki R168
  139. Mohammed S39, 169
  140. Mohammed S39, 169
  141. Moradi M112
  142. Moradzadeh R172
  143. Moraga P173
  144. Mosser JF1
  145. Naderi M174
  146. Nagarajan AJ175, 176
  147. Naik G177
  148. Negoi I178, 179
  149. Nguyen CT180
  150. Nguyen HLT180
  151. Nguyen TH181
  152. Nikbakhsh R88
  153. Oancea B182
  154. Olagunju TO183
  155. Olagunju AT184, 185
  156. Bali AO186
  157. Onwujekwe OE187
  158. Pana A32, 188
  159. Pourjafar H189, 190
  160. Rahim F191, 192
  161. Ur Rahman MH193
  162. Rathi P194
  163. Rawaf S195, 196
  164. Rawaf DL197, 198
  165. Rawassizadeh R199
  166. Resnikoff S200, 201
  167. Reta MA202, 203
  168. Rezapour A20
  169. Rubagotti E204
  170. Rubino S205
  171. Sadeghi E112
  172. Saghafipour A206, 207
  173. Sajadi SM208, 209
  174. Samy AM210
  175. Sarmientosuarez R211, 212
  176. Sawhney M213
  177. Schipp MF1
  178. Shaheen AA214
  179. Shaikh MA215
  180. Shamsizadeh M216
  181. Sharafi K112
  182. Sheikh A217, 218
  183. Kumar Shetty BS219
  184. Shin JI220
  185. Shivakumar KM221
  186. Simonetti B222, 223
  187. Singh JA224, 225
  188. Skiadaresi E226
  189. Soheili A227
  190. Soltani S112
  191. Spurlock EE1
  192. Sufiyan MB228
  193. Tabuchi T229
  194. Tapak L230, 231
  195. Thompson RL1
  196. Thomson AJ232
  197. Traini E233
  198. Tran BX234
  199. Ullah I235
  200. Ullah S46
  201. Uneke CJ236
  202. Unnikrishnan B237
  203. Uthman OA238
  204. Melchers NVSV239
  205. Violante FS240, 241
  206. Wolde HF15
  207. Wonde TE242
  208. Yamada T243
  209. Yaya S244, 245
  210. Yazdi Feyzabadi V246, 247
  211. Yip P248, 249
  212. Yonemoto N250, 251
  213. Yousof HASA129
  214. Yu C252
  215. Yu Y253
  216. Yusefzadeh H254
  217. Zaki L255
  218. Zaman SB256, 257
  219. Zamanian M172
  220. Zhang ZJ258
  221. Zhang Y259, 260
  222. Ziapour A261
  223. Hay SI1, 2
  224. Pigott DM1, 2

Source: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Published:2021


Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify. © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.