Cardiovascular Diseases Attributed to Future Heat and Cold: A Projection Study of Climate Change Impact Under Different Scenarios in an Arid Region of Iran, Esfarayen Publisher Pubmed

Summary: Could hotter decades raise heart-related illness? Climate projections for arid regions suggest heat-related heart illness may rise over 30% in future decades. #ClimateHealth #Cardiology

Shoraka H R ; Mahmudimanesh M ; Aboubakri O
Source: International Journal of Biometeorology Published:2026

Abstract

Climate and temperature changes are among the most critical challenges for human and planetary health; however, evidence on future temperature-related health impacts remains limited in the Middle East and other arid regions. This study quantified historical and projected heat and cold-related cardiovascular morbidity (i.e., hospital admissions) in an arid region of Iran under multiple climate, population, and adaptation scenarios. Daily cardiovascular disease counts were associated with temperature using a quasi-Poisson regression within a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), which was then combined with historical and projected temperature data (1981–2099) obtained from the ISIMIP database under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to station-based observations, air temperature was predicted using land surface temperature (LST) within a semi-parametric regression framework. Population change was incorporated using United Nations low- and high-fertility variant scenarios. Adaptation was modeled as a 20% upward shift in the minimum-CVDs temperature and compared with a no-adaptation scenario. Results showed that heat-attributable cardiovascular morbidity is projected to increase by more than 30% in several mid- and late-century decades, particularly under RCP8.5, whereas cold-attributable morbidity remains negligible (< 1%) and highly uncertain. Adaptation and population change had low effects on the attributable fraction, while the use of LST-derived air temperature resulted in more conservative risk estimates compared to station-based data. These findings highlight substantial future heat-related cardiovascular risks and emphasize the need for heat-specific urban planning and improved exposure modeling in projection studies, especially in arid regions. © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology 2026.