Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]

Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030] Publisher

Summary: Will metformin demand keep rising? An Iranian insurance-data study projects growing use as diabetes prevalence increases, underscoring potential supply challenges. #Diabetes #DrugAccess

Mousavi S M S P ; Siavash M ; Akbari M

Source: Journal of Isfahan Medical School Published:2026

Abstract

Background: Metformin, a key treatment for type 2 diabetes, is widely used among Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO) beneficiaries, reflecting rising diabetes prevalence due to aging, urbanization, and lifestyle shifts. Accurate prediction of Defined Daily Dose per 1,000 Inhabitants (DID) is vital for healthcare planning and drug supply stability. This study forecasts metformin DID for IHIO (2025–2030) using optimal modelin. Methods: Data from IHIO’s medical and insurance claims (2011–2024) were analyzed. DID projections were derived using multiple models, with the logarithmic model selected for its superior fit (highest R²). Linear regression identified trends, while descriptive statistics examined historical patterns. Validation included R² analysis, cross-validation, and model comparisons. Findings: DID is projected to increase from 6.05 (2025) to 6.77 (2030), with 2.3% annual growth. Historical data showed a peak (5.98 in 2019) and a decline (4.85 in 2021, likely due to COVID-19). The logarithmic model (R² = 0.92) best predicted the upward trend. Conclusion: The logarithmic model’s strong fit (R² = 0.92) supports the projected DID rise, driven by growing diabetes prevalence. Challenges such as economic barriers (e.g., sanctions) or supply constraints may hinder access. Proactive policies are needed to ensure metformin availability. Future research should explore regional disparities, alternative models, and economic influences. © 2026, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences(IUMS). All rights reserved.

Style	Citing Format
MLA	Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M. "Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]." Journal of Isfahan Medical School, vol. 44, no. 855, 2026, pp. 381-387.
APA	Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M (2026). Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]. Journal of Isfahan Medical School, 44(855), 381-387.
Chicago	Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M. "Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]." Journal of Isfahan Medical School 44, no. 855 (2026): 381-387.
Harvard	Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M (2026) 'Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]', Journal of Isfahan Medical School, 44(855), pp. 381-387.
Vancouver	Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M. Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]. Journal of Isfahan Medical School. 2026;44(855):381-387.
BibTex	@article{ author = {Mousavi S M S P and Siavash M and Akbari M}, title = {Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]}, journal = {Journal of Isfahan Medical School}, volume = {44}, number = {855}, pages = {381-387}, year = {2026} }
RIS	TY - JOUR AU - Mousavi S M S P AU - Siavash M AU - Akbari M TI - Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030] JO - Journal of Isfahan Medical School VL - 44 IS - 855 SP - 381 EP - 387 PY - 2026 ER -

Style

Citing Format

MLA

Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M. "Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]." Journal of Isfahan Medical School, vol. 44, no. 855, 2026, pp. 381-387.

APA

Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M (2026). Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]. Journal of Isfahan Medical School, 44(855), 381-387.

Chicago

Harvard

Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M (2026) 'Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]', Journal of Isfahan Medical School, 44(855), pp. 381-387.

Vancouver

Mousavi S M S P, Siavash M, Akbari M. Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]. Journal of Isfahan Medical School. 2026;44(855):381-387.

BibTex

@article{ author = {Mousavi S M S P and Siavash M and Akbari M}, title = {Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]}, journal = {Journal of Isfahan Medical School}, volume = {44}, number = {855}, pages = {381-387}, year = {2026} }

RIS

TY - JOUR
AU - Mousavi S M S P
AU - Siavash M
AU - Akbari M
TI - Forecasting the Defined Daily Dose Per 1,000 Population (Did) of Metformin Among the Insured Under the Iranian Health Insurance Organization: An Analysis of National Values, Trends, and Policy Implications for 2025–2030; [ینیبشیپزودهنازورردره1000یعمجرفنت)Did(اربییورادنیمروفتمردناگدشهمیبتحتششوپهمیب تمالس:ناریایهعلاطم،ریداقماهدنورویاهدمایپیتسایسملیردمینیههدآتی 2025ات2030]
JO - Journal of Isfahan Medical School
VL - 44
IS - 855
SP - 381
EP - 387
PY - 2026
ER -

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