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Global, Regional, and National Disease Burden Estimates of Acute Lower Respiratory Infections Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in 2015: A Systematic Review and Modelling Study Publisher Pubmed



Shi T1 ; Mcallister DA2 ; Obrien KL3 ; Simoes EAF4 ; Madhi SA5, 6 ; Gessner BD7 ; Polack FP8 ; Balsells E1 ; Acacio S9 ; Aguayo C10 ; Alassani I11 ; Ali A12 ; Antonio M13 ; Awasthi S14 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Shi T1
  2. Mcallister DA2
  3. Obrien KL3
  4. Simoes EAF4
  5. Madhi SA5, 6
  6. Gessner BD7
  7. Polack FP8
  8. Balsells E1
  9. Acacio S9
  10. Aguayo C10
  11. Alassani I11
  12. Ali A12
  13. Antonio M13
  14. Awasthi S14
  15. Awori JO15
  16. Azzizbaumgartner E16, 17
  17. Baggett HC18, 19
  18. Baillie VL5
  19. Balmaseda A20
  20. Barahona A21
  21. Basnet S22, 23
  22. Bassat Q9, 24, 25
  23. Basualdo W26
  24. Bigogo G27
  25. Bont L28
  26. Breiman RF29
  27. Brooks WA3, 16
  28. Broor S30
  29. Bruce N31
  30. Bruden D32
  31. Buchy P33, 34
  32. Campbell S1
  33. Carosonelink P35
  34. Chadha M36
  35. Chipeta J37
  36. Chou M38
  37. Clara W39
  38. Cohen C40, 41
  39. De Cuellar E42
  40. Dang DA43
  41. Dashyandag B44
  42. Deloriaknoll M3
  43. Dherani M31
  44. Eap T45
  45. Ebruke BE13
  46. Echavarria M46
  47. De Freitas Lazaro Emediato CC47
  48. Fasce RA48
  49. Feikin DR17
  50. Feng L49
  51. Gentile A50
  52. Gordon A51
  53. Goswami D3, 16
  54. Goyet S33
  55. Groome M5, 6
  56. Halasa N52
  57. Hirve S53
  58. Homaira N16, 54
  59. Howie SRC13, 55, 56
  60. Jara J57
  61. Jroundi I24, 58
  62. Kartasasmita CB59
  63. Khuribulos N60
  64. Kotloff KL61
  65. Krishnan A30
  66. Libster R8, 52, 62
  67. Lopez O63
  68. Lucero MG64
  69. Lucion F50
  70. Lupisan SP65
  71. Marcone DN46
  72. Mccracken JP57
  73. Mejia M66
  74. Moisi JC7
  75. Montgomery JM67
  76. Moore DP5, 6
  77. Moraleda C24
  78. Moyes J40, 41
  79. Munywoki P15, 68
  80. Mutyara K59
  81. Nicol MP69
  82. Nokes DJ15, 70
  83. Nymadawa P71
  84. Da Costa Oliveira MT47
  85. Oshitani H72
  86. Pandey N14
  87. Paranhosbaccala G73
  88. Phillips LN74
  89. Picot VS73
  90. Rahman M16
  91. Rakotoandrianarivelo M75
  92. Rasmussen ZA76
  93. Rath BA77
  94. Robinson A78
  95. Romero C79
  96. Russomando G80
  97. Salimi V81
  98. Sawatwong P18
  99. Scheltema N28
  100. Schweiger B82
  101. Scott JAG15, 83
  102. Seidenberg P84
  103. Shen K85
  104. Singleton R32, 86
  105. Sotomayor V10
  106. Strand TA22, 87
  107. Sutanto A88
  108. Sylla M89
  109. Tapia MD61
  110. Thamthitiwat S18
  111. Thomas ED76
  112. Tokarz R90
  113. Turner C91
  114. Venter M92
  115. Waicharoen S93
  116. Wang J94
  117. Watthanaworawit W91
  118. Yoshida LM95
  119. Yu H49
  120. Zar HJ96
  121. Campbell H1
  122. Nair H1, 97

Source: The Lancet Published:2017


Abstract

Background We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. Methods We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. Findings We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6–50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7–3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000–74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2–1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700–36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600–149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Interpretation Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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