Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher

Cross M^{1, 3} ; Ong KL⁴ ; Culbreth GT⁴ ; Steinmetz JD⁴ ; Cousin E^{4, 5} ; Kopec JA^{7, 8} ; Haile LM⁴ ; Brooks PM⁹ ; Kopanskygiles DR^{10, 11} ; Dreinhoefer KE^{3, 12} ; Betteridge N¹³ ; Abbasian M^{11, 15} ; Abbasifard M^{17, 18} ; Abedi A^{19, 20} Show All Authors

Cross M^{1, 3}
Ong KL⁴
Culbreth GT⁴
Steinmetz JD⁴
Cousin E^{4, 5}
Kopec JA^{7, 8}
Haile LM⁴
Brooks PM⁹
Kopanskygiles DR^{10, 11}
Dreinhoefer KE^{3, 12}
Betteridge N¹³
Abbasian M^{11, 15}
Abbasifard M^{17, 18}
Abedi A^{19, 20}
Aboye MB²¹
Aravkin AY^{4, 5, 6}
Artaman A²²
Banach M^{23, 24}
Bensenor IM²⁵
Bhagavathula AS²⁶
Bhat AN²⁷
Bitaraf S²⁸
Buchbinder R^{29, 31}
Burkart K^{4, 5}
Chu DT³²
Chung SC^{33, 34}
Dadras O^{35, 36}
Dai X^{4, 5}
Das S³⁹
Dhingra S⁴⁰
Do TC⁴¹
Edinur HA⁴²
Fatehizadeh A⁴³
Fetensa G⁴⁴
Freitas M⁴⁵
Ganesan B⁴⁶
Gholami A^{47, 48}
Gill TK⁴⁹
Golechha M⁵⁰
Goleij P^{51, 52}
Hafezinejad N^{37, 53}
Hamidi S⁵⁴
Hay SI^{4, 5}
Hundessa S³⁰
Iso H⁵⁵
Jayaram S⁵⁶
Kadashetti V⁵⁷
Karaye IM^{58, 59}
Khan EA⁶⁰
Khan MAB^{61, 62}
Khatatbeh MM⁶³
Kiadaliri A⁶⁴
Kim MS⁶⁵
Kolahi AA¹⁶
Krishan K⁶⁶
Kumar N⁶⁷
Le TTT⁶⁹
Lim SS^{4, 5}
Lobo SW^{70, 71}
Majeed A⁷²
Malik AA^{73, 74}
Mesregah MK⁷⁵
Mestrovic T^{4, 76}
Mirrakhimov EM^{77, 78}
Mishra M⁷⁹
Misra AK⁸⁰
Moberg ME⁴
Mohamed NS^{81, 82}
Mohan S^{83, 84}
Mokdad AH^{4, 5}
Momenzadeh K¹⁴
Moni MA⁸⁵
Moradi Y⁸⁶
Mougin V⁴
Mukhopadhyay S⁸⁷
Murray CJL^{4, 5}
Swamy SN⁸⁸
Nguyen VT⁶⁸
Niazi RK⁸⁹
Owolabi MO^{90, 91}
Padubidri JR⁹²
Patel J^{93, 94}
Pawar S⁹⁵
Pedersini P⁹⁶
Rafferty Q⁴
Rahman M⁹⁷
Rashidi MM^{16, 38}
Rawaf S^{72, 98}
Saad AMA⁹⁹
Sahebkar A^{100, 101}
Sharifaskari FS¹⁰²
Saleh MA^{103, 104}
Schumacher AE⁴
Seylani A¹⁰⁵
Singh P¹⁰⁶
Smith AE⁴
Solanki R^{107, 108}
Solomon Y¹⁰⁹
Tan KK¹¹⁰
Tat NY^{111, 112}
Tibebu NSS¹¹³
You Y^{2, 114}
Zheng P^{4, 5}
Zitoun OA^{115, 116}
Vos T^{4, 5}
March LM^{1, 117}
Woolf AD^{118, 119}

Source: The Lancet Rheumatology Published:2024

Abstract

Background: Gout is an inflammatory arthritis manifesting as acute episodes of severe joint pain and swelling, which can progress to chronic tophaceous or chronic erosive gout, or both. Here, we present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national estimates for prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout by sex, age, and location from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, as well as forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Gout prevalence and YLDs from 1990 to 2020 were estimated by drawing on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China). Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs due to gout by age, sex, and location. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 with a mixed-effects model. Findings: In 2020, 55·8 million (95% uncertainty interval 44·4–69·8) people globally had gout, with an age-standardised prevalence of 659·3 (525·4–822·3) per 100 000, an increase of 22·5% (20·9–24·2) since 1990. Globally, the prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3·26 (3·11–3·39) times higher in males than in females and increased with age. The total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95·8 million (81·1–116) in 2050, with population growth being the largest contributor to this increase and only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence. Age-standardised gout prevalence in 2050 is forecast to be 667 (531–830) per 100 000 population. The global age-standardised YLD rate of gout was 20·5 (14·4–28·2) per 100 000 population in 2020. High BMI accounted for 34·3% (27·7–40·6) of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11·8% (9·3–14·2). Interpretation: Our forecasting model estimates that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing. With the association between gout disability and high BMI, dietary and lifestyle modifications focusing on bodyweight reduction are needed at the population level to reduce the burden of gout along with access to interventions to prevent and control flares. Despite the rigour of the standardised GBD methodology and modelling, in many countries, particularly low-income and middle-income countries, estimates are based on modelled rather than primary data and are also lacking severity and disability estimates. We strongly encourage the collection of these data to be included in future GBD iterations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

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Style	Citing Format
MLA	Cross M, et al.. "Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet Rheumatology, vol. 6, no. 8, 2024, pp. e507-e517.
APA	Cross M, Ong KL, Culbreth GT, Steinmetz JD, Cousin E, Kopec JA, Haile LM, Brooks PM, Kopanskygiles DR, Dreinhoefer KE, Betteridge N, Abbasian M, Abbasifard M, Abedi A, Aboye MB, Aravkin AY, Artaman A, Banach M, Bensenor IM, ... Woolf AD (2024). Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Rheumatology, 6(8), e507-e517.
Chicago	Cross M, Ong KL, Culbreth GT, Steinmetz JD, Cousin E, Kopec JA, Haile LM, et al.. "Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021." The Lancet Rheumatology 6, no. 8 (2024): e507-e517.
Harvard	Cross M et al. (2024) 'Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021', The Lancet Rheumatology, 6(8), pp. e507-e517.
Vancouver	Cross M, Ong KL, Culbreth GT, Steinmetz JD, Cousin E, Kopec JA, et al.. Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Rheumatology. 2024;6(8):e507-e517.
BibTex	@article{ author = {Cross M and Ong KL and Culbreth GT and Steinmetz JD and Cousin E and Kopec JA and Haile LM and Brooks PM and Kopanskygiles DR and Dreinhoefer KE and Betteridge N and Abbasian M and Abbasifard M and Abedi A and Aboye MB and Aravkin AY and Artaman A and Banach M and Bensenor IM and Bhagavathula AS and Bhat AN and Bitaraf S and Buchbinder R and Burkart K and Chu DT and Chung SC and Dadras O and Dai X and Das S and Dhingra S and Do TC and Edinur HA and Fatehizadeh A and Fetensa G and Freitas M and Ganesan B and Gholami A and Gill TK and Golechha M and Goleij P and Hafezinejad N and Hamidi S and Hay SI and Hundessa S and Iso H and Jayaram S and Kadashetti V and Karaye IM and Khan EA and Khan MAB and Khatatbeh MM and Kiadaliri A and Kim MS and Kolahi AA and Krishan K and Kumar N and Le TTT and Lim SS and Lobo SW and Majeed A and Malik AA and Mesregah MK and Mestrovic T and Mirrakhimov EM and Mishra M and Misra AK and Moberg ME and Mohamed NS and Mohan S and Mokdad AH and Momenzadeh K and Moni MA and Moradi Y and Mougin V and Mukhopadhyay S and Murray CJL and Swamy SN and Nguyen VT and Niazi RK and Owolabi MO and Padubidri JR and Patel J and Pawar S and Pedersini P and Rafferty Q and Rahman M and Rashidi MM and Rawaf S and Saad AMA and Sahebkar A and Sharifaskari FS and Saleh MA and Schumacher AE and Seylani A and Singh P and Smith AE and Solanki R and Solomon Y and Tan KK and Tat NY and Tibebu NSS and You Y and Zheng P and Zitoun OA and Vos T and March LM and Woolf AD}, title = {Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}, journal = {The Lancet Rheumatology}, volume = {6}, number = {8}, pages = {e507-e517}, year = {2024} }
RIS	TY - JOUR AU - Cross M AU - Ong KL AU - Culbreth GT AU - Steinmetz JD AU - Cousin E AU - Kopec JA AU - Haile LM AU - Brooks PM AU - Kopanskygiles DR AU - Dreinhoefer KE AU - Betteridge N AU - Abbasian M AU - Abbasifard M AU - Abedi A AU - Aboye MB AU - Aravkin AY AU - Artaman A AU - Banach M AU - Bensenor IM AU - Bhagavathula AS AU - Bhat AN AU - Bitaraf S AU - Buchbinder R AU - Burkart K AU - Chu DT AU - Chung SC AU - Dadras O AU - Dai X AU - Das S AU - Dhingra S AU - Do TC AU - Edinur HA AU - Fatehizadeh A AU - Fetensa G AU - Freitas M AU - Ganesan B AU - Gholami A AU - Gill TK AU - Golechha M AU - Goleij P AU - Hafezinejad N AU - Hamidi S AU - Hay SI AU - Hundessa S AU - Iso H AU - Jayaram S AU - Kadashetti V AU - Karaye IM AU - Khan EA AU - Khan MAB AU - Khatatbeh MM AU - Kiadaliri A AU - Kim MS AU - Kolahi AA AU - Krishan K AU - Kumar N AU - Le TTT AU - Lim SS AU - Lobo SW AU - Majeed A AU - Malik AA AU - Mesregah MK AU - Mestrovic T AU - Mirrakhimov EM AU - Mishra M AU - Misra AK AU - Moberg ME AU - Mohamed NS AU - Mohan S AU - Mokdad AH AU - Momenzadeh K AU - Moni MA AU - Moradi Y AU - Mougin V AU - Mukhopadhyay S AU - Murray CJL AU - Swamy SN AU - Nguyen VT AU - Niazi RK AU - Owolabi MO AU - Padubidri JR AU - Patel J AU - Pawar S AU - Pedersini P AU - Rafferty Q AU - Rahman M AU - Rashidi MM AU - Rawaf S AU - Saad AMA AU - Sahebkar A AU - Sharifaskari FS AU - Saleh MA AU - Schumacher AE AU - Seylani A AU - Singh P AU - Smith AE AU - Solanki R AU - Solomon Y AU - Tan KK AU - Tat NY AU - Tibebu NSS AU - You Y AU - Zheng P AU - Zitoun OA AU - Vos T AU - March LM AU - Woolf AD TI - Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 JO - The Lancet Rheumatology VL - 6 IS - 8 SP - e507 EP - e517 PY - 2024 ER -